About Unrefined
Unrefined is a publication about energy markets, refining, and the structural stories hiding in the data. Occasional macro and other futures when something catches my attention.
Most energy commentary is a retelling of the headlines. Most finance commentary treats oil as a single ticker. Neither of those is useful if you actually want to understand what’s happening in physical markets. I write for readers who want the version that sits between them.
What you’ll find here
Pieces here are driven by data I collect and maintain myself: weekly EIA inventories, crack spreads, refinery utilization, retail fuel prices, crude curves, and a long list of other signals that most casual readers never see. When I write about something, the argument is grounded in specific numbers with specific sources. When I make a call, it is a specific call with a specific timeline.
Pieces generally fall into one of three categories. Analytical posts that work through a specific question in the data. Scenario posts that think through what happens if particular events play out. Scorecards that revisit previous calls and honestly assess whether the thesis held up.
What you won’t find
No daily market commentary. No breaking news takes. No shouting about whatever just moved. The goal here is to go deeper than the news cycle, not to compete with it.
I also don’t pretend to be certain when I’m not. Analysis is honest about its own limits. When I don’t know something, I say so. When I’m wrong, I come back and say that too.
How often
A couple of times per week when there’s something worth saying.
About accountability
Every piece that makes a specific call comes with a scorecard commitment. Thirty days later, ninety days later, whenever the call is testable, I come back and show whether it worked. Right or wrong, the scorecard is public. That’s how track records get built and how readers know whether to trust the next call.
Who this is for
Investors and traders who want research-grade analysis on energy markets without paying institutional research prices. Operators in the energy sector who want an outside view grounded in actual data. Curious generalists who want to understand how physical markets work and why that matters for inflation, geopolitics, and policy.
If you’re any of those, subscribe and stick around. If you’re looking for hot takes or cheerleading, this probably isn’t for you.
